posted May 07, 2002 04:51 AM         

Over the years, I've spoken in the strangest of places to the most disparate of audiences. From gatherings of European intelligence chiefs, at locations which must remain undisclosed, to the parliament building of the Serbian Republic of Krajina; from the function suite of the Marriott Hotel across the road from the Pentagon to the Grand Lounge of the cruise ship QE2 on the high seas. They are about as varied a set of locations as you might imagine . . .
But many of my invitations to expound come simply as a result of an accident of nomenclature. One Paul Harris, a lawyer from Pennsylvania, earlier this century founded the Rotary movement. A fellow American I met recently whilst lecturing on a cruise ship told me he was a lonely sort of chap with no friends and he started Rotary to provide himself with amiable dinner companions. From such inauspicious beginnings, Rotary grew into an enormous worldwide body and it seems as soon as some Rotarian hears my name he's reaching for his diary.
The Rotary Club at Batticaloa in Sri Lanka was probably the most interesting. That was back in April 1996. By night the rebels controlled the town and came out to collect taxes from the local population: the military retired to a heavily defended base until dawn. Batticaloa is a beautiful town.
The real leader of the local community and the most resolute fighter for human rights is a Jesuit priest from Louisiana, Father Harry Miller. He's been there since 1947 and, you guessed it, runs the local Rotary club. For decades he criticised human rights abuses by the security forces. Now he's exposing the abuses of the LTTE. A remarkable man who works without fear or favour. When I pitched up at the seminary and asked for an interview he acceded to my request - on condition I addressed the Rotary Club of Batticaloa later that day . . . This was not a meeting in a posh hotel: it is the whitewashed, open sided building of the local school. It was at 4.30 rather then evening hours: in these parts everybody must be home before dark. And whole families attend. A white, guest speaker is a rarity in these parts.
Then I talked on how peace came to Bosnia. So they got twenty minutes on the Dayton Peace Agreement and Bosnia. I'm supposed to be a bit of an expert on war so I often get inveigled into talking about peace.I have got firm, distinct views on these topics. But, like Prabhakaran, I'm more comfortable talking about war. That might seem strange.
During the last eleven years I have written about war and conflict generally from all over the world. Datelines from eighty-two countries to be precise. Personal observation of twenty-two wars. And I have eaten, drunk with and slept with more than a dozen terrorist and guerrilla groups. There is a degree in politics and international relations stuck somewhere in my background and - in the long distant past - some experience of military intelligence. But, essentially, my qualifications for opining on matters of peace and war, on human nature and frailty, is based on having observed it continuously at close hand for eleven years.
I've been shot at by a sniper in Sarajevo - he missed; I've been mortared in Croatia - the closest landed 100 metres ahead of our car; I've observed the excesses of the Indonesian security forces in Aceh whilst posing as a psychiatrist; I had to flee into the jungle in Sudan after our compound was attacked by gunmen; militias once tried to kill me three times in one single day in Albania; I was surrounded by rebels in Uganda after our pickup broke down; I almost died in Kosovo after climbing into a mass grave and being stung by an insect gorged on ten week old dead bodies; and I witnessed the Central Bank bombing in Colombo.
I'd like to think that out of this sort of panoply of experience I've gained some sort of insight, some sort of wisdom. Otherwise, it's all been a bit of a waste of time. I am now specialist contributor on global insurgency and terrorism for Janes Intelligence Review. This puts me in the frequently tricky position of being in the prediction business: I have to make judgements on the short, medium and long term development of other people's wars.
Over the years, I've been to Sri Lanka fifteen or sixteen times. I am now a Sri Lankan resident and, indeed, am planning to stay here, build a house, invest money and start businesses here. I've decided to set myself down here - rather than in any of the other 81 countries I've been to for a variety of reasons, which I don't have time to go into here.
But one of those reasons has to be that this is the most fascinating country in the world. The more I learn about it, the more I realise how little I actually know or understand. It is at the same time infuriating, intriguing and challenging. Above all, unlike Europe today, it is NOT boring.
I am often baffled here. At the moment I am completely baffled at what is happening. The Greatest giveaway in history. It might seem impertinent for a foreigner to comment on political developments here but, in all my travels, I have never seen such an extraordinary turn of events as has happened here since December 5.
The UNP government, unable to continue to prosecute war militarily or economically, is desperate to develop the peace process. "I'm not saying 'no' to anything, except a separate state. The territorial integrity of Sri Lanka must be safeguarded . . . We want one Sri Lanka - no division of Sri Lanka," said Wickremesinghe on February 24 at a press conference.
However, the LTTE have been as successful in utilising the provisions of the MoU as they have been in recent years in prosecuting a multi-pronged battlefield, guerrilla and terrorist war against the Sri Lankan state. Statements at Prabhakaran's press conference revealed that the LTTE have a very clear appreciation of the present weakness of the Sri Lankan state and intends to exploit that factor to the full. With extraordinary frankness, His strategy was revealed. "We don't think that Ranil Wickremesinghe is capable of addressing the core issues and is able to offer us a permanent solution at this stage because the executive powers of governance are vested with the President and his powers are limited to parliament. It is because of this that we are suggesting an interim administration in the north east.
"In the meantime, Ranil Wickremesinghe will have space to build up southern Sri Lanka. So it will be advantageous for the Tamils as well as for the Sinhalese to work out an interim set up for the time being. Once this is set up then we are prepared to discuss the core issues and negotiate for a permanent settlement to the ethnic issue. But now we believe the government is not politically stable or powerful enough to take up the core issues of the Tamils and offer us a permanent solution."
Although Prabhakaran repeatedly professed to his belief in the success of the upcoming peace talks in Bangkok, and affirmed his sincerity in the peace process, it was clear he left little room for compromise in the matter of the creation of an independent Tamil Eelam. Prabhakaran is still irrevocably committed to the creation of an independent state of Tamil Eelam.
Asked about the statement he once made to the effect that his cadres would shoot him if he ever renounced Eelam, Prabhakaran smiled, glanced at his heavily armed bodyguards and observed "that statement still holds". He said that "the right conditions have not arisen for the LTTE to abandon the policy of independent statehood."
Asked if he recognised Ranil Wickremesinghe as his Prime Minister, Prabhakaran laughed and Balasingham answered, "Ranil Wickremesinghe is the Prime Minister of those who elected him. Mr Prabhakaran is the President and Prime Minister of Tamil Eelam." It was further averred that armed struggle would only be given up after "three fundamentals" were accepted by the government. "They are Tamil homeland, Tamil nationality and self-determination of the Tamils. If a political is put forward recognising these fundamentals then we can consider giving up the demand for Tamil Eelam . . . But if the Sri Lanka government rejects our demand for autonomy and self governance then - as a last resort - we will opt for secession." The demands being made are effectively the same as those made at the failed Thimpu talks with the J R Jayawardene government back in 1985
Under the MoU, the LTTE is able to set up political offices in government-held 'cleared' areas and this process is now being carried through briskly and efficiently by the rebels. A whole series of sophisticated strategies designed to occupy all the political and social space throughout the north and the east of the country are currently being undertaken by the LTTE. The strategies encompass all areas of public life and include:
Forcing government department heads to work for LTTE Taxing civil servants 8% of salaries Controlling business of government cooperatives and thereby obtaining a steady income All contracts for government and NGO projects are to be carried out by LTTE approved contractors and income is thereby derived Controlling and using all available government resources Demeaning activities of competing political groups Sending cadres into government areas in defiance of conditions of MoU Influencing and using teachers, students and labour unions to carry out hartals, demonstrations, picketing and protests Erection of monuments to martyrs and LTTE figures Influencing government servants to use LTTE headquarters Kokkadicholai in place of the government Kachcheri in the eastern province Influencing civilians to make legal complaints via the LTTE, rather than to the police Organising mass 'Tamil awakening' rallies known as Pongu Tamils (four have now taken place in Vavuniya, Batticaloa and Trincomalee) Classes on Eelam in schools Edicts on dress code for women: on February 4 women's wing of LTTE in Amparai distributed leaflets advising married women to dress in traditional clothes. The LTTE has also called for a boycott on Tamil Nadu films alleging they disgrace Tamil language, culture and people. Restrictions on businesses involved in private tutoring of schoolchildren. The creation of a general psychosis of fear in coveted areas to be included in the state of Tamil Eelam.
A psychosis of fear is being brought about by enforced conscription of youth into the LTTE, general coercion and extortion of funds from traders, especially the Muslim community.
In addition to the undermining of government control and authority, the enhancement of LTTE military capability is being undertaken through reconstruction of defences; accelerated recruitment; reinforcement of command posts and radio rooms with concrete allowed into LTTE areas under the MoU; smuggling of arms and ammunition; building up of arms and ammunition stockpiles in government areas; movement of heavy mortars and machine guns into the east; increased level of training; intensified reconnaissance on army, Special Task Force (STF) and police locations; and the reorganisation of LTTE cadres into regiments. Military cadres are moving into government held areas under the conditions created by the MoU and undertaking their missions with little impediment.
Decoded radio intercepts from LTTE military leader Karuna, known as amongst the more 'hawkish' of the LTTE leadership, made since the MoU, refer ominously to "when hostilities recommence". More than 750 cadres have been recruited in the east since the signing of the MoU. Almost 2,000 have moved into the area from rebel held areas in the north and the military strength of the LTTE around their headquarters in the east stands at an all time high of around 7,000.
It seems to me inevitable that the division of Sri Lanka will take place. Although the government will probably not be able to formalise such an arrangement, the LTTE will use the device of an interim administration to consolidate its hold on the north and the east. A system of parallel government, in which the LTTE is actually supreme, will effectively replace governance from Colombo with LTTE operated border controls, customs duties and travel permits.
The government in Colombo is becoming increasingly concerned not only over the precarious future for the Muslims, but at statements made at Pongu Tamil rallies by their own Minister of Community Development, Periyasamy Chandrasekaran, who promised the mass gatherings the support of the so-called Hill Tamils who work on the tea estates in the centre of the country and who have not been associated thus far with the LTTE. Already, maps of Tamil Eelam on public display show two thirds of the coastline of the island and almost a half of the land mass within the proposed territory of Tamil Eelam. Such division will deny the Sinhalese access to some of the best agricultural land and fishing grounds, as well as the best tourist beaches. Loss of the hill country will imply the additional loss of most of the lucrative tea estates.
There would seem to me to be little doubt that the state of Sri Lanka is headed for early division between a Sinhalese state in the south and the west and the state of Tamil Eelam in the north and the east. This division will likely be de facto rather than de jure.. The Sinhalese are exhausted mentally and economically by almost twenty years of war and there is now a widespread sense of resignation about the future, albeit with the implication of their own nation state being much reduced in physical size and financial resources.
And so it will come to pass. The LTTE will quickly occupy all the social and political space in the north and the east. By next year, the LTTE will be similarly established in the Hill Country. The interim administration in the north and the east will be dominated by the LTTE: indeed, it will be the organ of a one man, one party state. The army and security forces will soon be excluded from the north and the east. Not that they will be over run by human waves bearing down as at Mullaitivu or Elephant Pass. This time the civilian population will be used to see off the government forces, in the same way as the subject peoples of Yugoslavia drove out the Yugoslav army. Thousands of civilians will camp outside army and STF bases - children, old people - all dragooned and shepherded by the LTTE. Where the government does not give in - and it has given in on most things without a fight - it will be driven out by the people, well trained by Pongu Thamils and cultural ceremonies.
Without the protection afforded by the security forces, many Muslims will leave; all the Sinhalese will move out; even many Tamils unhappy at living in a fascistic state. The borders of this de facto state will gradually encroach - down to Negombo in the north, Hambantota in the south, ultimately taking in Nuwara Eliya and the hill country, thanks to the enthusiastic cooperation on the CWC and TNA MPs. The State of Tamil Eelam will set up its border crossing points, its passports, entry visas, extend its existing police, civil administration, banking and political infrastructure. Any effective control from Colombo will simply cease to exist.
Ultimately, when the government makes a final stand late in the day, refusing further concessions, the rearmed and re-strengthened LTTE will launch a short and decisive war to gain its final objectives. This it will win in days against a demoralised and weakened national army. Tamil Eelam will occupy two thirds of this island and, indeed, Sinhalese control of the remaining coastal strip will be fragile in the extreme.
As I said before, I am fascinated by this wonderful and beautiful country. I am also baffled.

posted May 07, 2002 08:47 AM            

Sri Lanka needs a dictator who cares
about the country rather than his/her
own political dreams. That is the driving
engine behind Malaysia and Singapore.

What is sad is that a very small number of
people can control this big island, and the
majority (whether they are Sinhala Tamil or Muslim) can't do a thing about it.

About few years ago when I visited Sri Lanka I wonderd why Prabhakaran is not the President of Sri Lanka and not Chandrika.
Then I thought, LTTE may be just as stupid as
the Sri Lankan regime. They just did not
know how to get what they were capable of.

Hammer